Key considerations in your foreign exchange exposure analysis

In our previous post, we discussed the five essential steps to creating and implementing an effective foreign exchange hedging policy. As you work towards benchmarking your organization's FX exposure against a set policy, it's crucial to understand the starting point: determining whether your organization engages in proactive or reactive foreign exchange (FX) management.

Drawing inspiration from Australian General Thomas Blamey's tactics during World War II, we will explore the major differences between proactive and reactive FX management, and provide key considerations for structuring your FX exposure analysis.

Proactive vs. Reactive FX Management: A Lesson from General Blamey's Tactics

Proactive FX Risk Management: The Offensive Approach

General Blamey's decisive tactics during World War II, particularly in the New Guinea Campaign, can be likened to proactive FX Risk management. Just as General Blamey took well thought, calculated moves to push back enemy forces and adapted to ever-changing battlefield conditions, organizations that embrace proactive FX Risk management monitor the FX market and make strategic ongoing decisions to hedge their currency exposure. One example of General Blamey's far-sighted approach is the introduction of periscope rifles during the Gallipoli battle. These rifles allowed his troops to keep watch on potential risks and gain an advantage over the enemy. Similarly, proactive FX Risk management requires a comprehensive understanding of the market and superior tracking tools at disposal for professionals managing FX risk.

Key aspects of active FX management, reflecting General Blamey's offensive approach, include:

• Frequent monitoring and analysis of current market conditions to stay ahead of potential risks (akin to Blamey's use of periscope rifles)

• Implementing FX hedging strategies tailored to the nature of each exposure (keeping the objectives foremost but understanding the unique challenges of each engagement)

• Assessing and adjusting hedging strategies based on market conditions (adapting to changing circumstances)

• Implementing a more detailed and superior plan utilizing a combination of financial instruments, such as forwards and swaps (applying tactics appropriate to the challenges at hand)

• Tactics around market entry at the right levels, intervals and amounts relevant to the FX exposure (monitoring circumstances to engage at the right time on the field)

Reactive FX Management: The Defensive Approach

Reactive FX Risk management can be compared to a more conservative, defensive military strategy. One example from Australian military history is the Battle of Papua in 1943, where Blamey’s Australian forces, along with American troops, successfully defended against Japanese advances. Instead of engaging in aggressive maneuvers, the Australian forces focused on strengthening their defensive positions and leveraging the difficult terrain to their advantage.

Similarly, organizations opting for Reactive FX Risk management establish a set hedging policy and adhere to it (e.g., protecting the planned gross margins), regardless of market conditions. This approach minimizes the need for constant monitoring and decision-making, resulting in reduced time spent, simpler decision making, less involved plan management and requires fewer resources.

Key aspects of Reactive FX Risk management, akin to General Blamey’s defensive tactics during the Battle of Papua, include:

• Establishing a budget rate as a target, (like the Australian forces' commitment to maintaining a strong defense)

• Limited monitoring of market conditions and more focus on cashflow exposure (as the defenders held their position rather than constantly changing course as the enemy movement changed)

• Reduced time spent and drag on resources (as seen in the more conservative approach taken during the battle)

• Lower potential for profit, but also lower risk of significant losses (much like the strategy of prioritizing defense over aggressive counterattacks)

Reactive or Proactive, whichever is suitable for your business needs, it’s prudent to keep a keen eye on your cashflow schedule for each forecasted exposure. Over the span of the business cycle, each transaction carries multiple elements of FX exposure which can eventually impact your bottom-line on converted FX needs. The diagram below will help explain how a transaction, from its inception and forecast through to settlement, may provide positive participation in FX rate movement, or eventually fall in a high-fluctuation market cycles and thus reduce your net earnings.

Understanding the different types of risks associated with foreign exchange is critical for companies doing business internationally. When a company forecasts an FX exposure in its cash flow, it is initially exposed to "pricing" risk, where market pricing may differ from what the company records. This same transaction is constantly exposed to rate fluctuations in FX markets, which can either present opportunities for improved net earnings or require hedging against losses due to FX volatility. As the transaction progresses over time, it may enter a "transactional" risk scenario, where downside market movement can erode or even completely erase the profitability of the whole project if not hedged in time.

Corpay's platform helps businesses address these risks by allowing them to record FX cash flows using budgeted rates, enabling them to adopt a more proactive approach to managing market fluctuations.

Thank you for reading this blog post. If you have any questions or would like to learn more about our services, please visit corpay.com or contact us directly. Together, we can draw inspiration from historical tactics to better navigate the complexities of foreign exchange management in today's global marketplace.

In our next blog post, we will delve deeper into how Corpay's platform can assist in minimizing foreign exchange risks and optimizing your organization's financial performance.