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February 17, 2025Cross-Border
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UK: Weekly FX Market Update 17 February 2025

GBP

  • A combination of better than expected UK GDP and delayed US tariffs helped GBPUSD gain around 2% last week.

  • This coming week, the UK data highlights may be Tuesday’s employment data release, followed by Wednesday’s CPI.

  • Will both data sets continue to show increases in wages and inflation, forcing the Bank of England to keep rates higher for longer and supporting Sterling?

EUR

  • Ukraine peace talks stimulated the Euro last week. But, Europe may have to defend Ukraine alone after peace is agreed.

  • The market is aware that the Eurozone is President Trump’s next target for tariffs. Will the current Euro strength last?

  • Eurozone PMI data has often been a catalyst for Euro movement. Will it be the same again this Friday?

USD

  • As US tariffs are delayed again, the market calms down and the US Dollar loses ground.

  • US CPI shows signs of stalling well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Could that keep US rates at current levels for some time? Will this be a reason for future USD strength?

  • FOMC Meeting Minutes are released on Wednesday. Does the Federal Reserve still think there could be two rate cuts in 2025?

Main events for this week:

Mon Feb 17

10:00 EUR Trade Balance

14:30 USD FOMC Harker Speaks

15:20 USD FOMC Bowman Speaks

Tue Feb 18

03:30 AUD Reserve Bank Australia (RBA) Int Rate Decision

04:30 AUD RBA Press Conference

07:00 GBP Claimant Count Change/Average Earnings Index/Unemployment Rate

10:00 EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment

13:30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Index

15:20 USD FOMC Daly Speaks

Wed Feb 19

01:00 NZD Reserve Bank New Zealand (RBNZ) Int Rate Decision

02:00 NZD RBNZ Press Conference

07:00 GBP CPI

19:00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes

Thu Feb 20

00:30 AUD Employment Data

11:00 GBP CBI Ind Order Expectations

13:30 USD Unemployment Claims

14:35 USD FOMC Goolsbee Speaks

22:30 AUD RBA Gov Bullock Speaks

Fri Feb 21

07:00 GBP Retail Sales/Public Sector Net Borrowing

09:00 EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI/Flash Services PMI

09:30 GBP Flash Manufacturing PMI/Flash Services PMI

14:45 USD Flash Manufacturing PMI/Flash Services PMI

15:00 USD Revised Uni of Michigan Consumer Sentiment/Inflation Expectations

About the author

Trevor Charsley

Trevor Charsley

Senior Market Strategist

Trevor has over 25 years' trading and sales experience. He produces regular market and technical analysis as well as help with the structure and management of FX hedging policies. Trevor is often listed among the top "currency forecaster on Bloomberg".