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February 24, 2025Cross-Border
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UK: Weekly FX Market Update 24 February 2025

GBP

  • Bank of England MPC members could indicate direction for the pound this week. Economist Pill speaks on Tuesday and Deputy Governor Ramsden speaks on Friday.

  • Sterling had a reasonable week last week, as strong retail sales kept it supported against the US Dollar, and moving higher against the Euro.

  • Potential threats to a higher GBPUSD and GBPEUR come in the form of US GDP data on Thursday and the German election results.

EUR

  • EURUSD has been struggling to follow GBPUSD lead higher as the market worries about the possible imposition of US tariffs on the Eurozone, as well as political change on the domestic front.

  • Last week, French PMI data was weak but German PMI data showed possible growth to come.

  • Can the German election produce a Christian Democrat, Social Democrat and Green Party coalition with a robust majority? Will the Euro strengthen off the back of it?

USD

  • The Financial Times reports that the first month of President Trump’s second term has been a whirlwind of executive orders, lawsuits, and controversy. He has signed 73 executive orders in a 30-day period, surpassing both President Bush and Obama’s two-term totals.

  • President Trump has also imposed 10% tariffs on China and 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports, whilst threatening tariffs on all trading partners, competitors and allies alike.

  • Markets like certainty. Could the volume of ‘noise’ and change from the new administration be holding the US Dollar back? US GDP on Thursday and Personal Consumption Expenditure data released on Friday may show direction.

Main events for this week:

Mon Feb 24

09:00 EUR German IFO Business Climate

10:00 EUR Final CPI

18:00 GBP MPC Dhingra Speaks

Tues Feb 25

09:15 USD FOMC Logan Speaks

14:00 GBP MPC Pill Speaks

15:00 USD Consumer Confidence

Wed Feb 26

00:30 AUD CPI

05:00 JPY Core CPI

15:00 USD new Home Sales

Thu Feb 27

13:30 USD Preliminary GDP/Unemployment Claims/Durable Goods

20:15 USD FOMC Harker Speaks

Fri Feb 28

07:00 GBP MPC Ramsden Speaks

07:00 EUR German Preliminary CPI

13:30 USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Index/Goods Trade Balance

14:45 USD Chicago PMI

About the author

Trevor Charsley

Trevor Charsley

Senior Market Strategist

Trevor has over 25 years' trading and sales experience. He produces regular market and technical analysis as well as help with the structure and management of FX hedging policies. Trevor is often listed among the top "currency forecaster on Bloomberg".