UK: Weekly FX Market Update 24 March 2025
GBP
Despite a ‘hawkish hold’ from the Bank of England on interest rates, GBPUSD fell away from the psychologically important 1.3000 level last week.
Chancellor Reeves delivers her Spring Statement on Wednesday. How will the market react?
Wednesday also sees UK CPI data released, with UK GDP data being released on Friday. Can the UK economy see blue skies ahead, or is there trouble on the horizon?
EUR
As Germany and the EU gear up for huge defence and infrastructure spending, sentiment around the Euro remains broadly positive.
However, despite the positivity, EURUSD still couldn’t reach the psychologically important 1.1000 level - have we reached the top of the range?
With forward-looking PMI data due out on Monday, will investors want to see real progress made on the spending plans before taking EURUSD higher?
USD
Last week, the Fed held interest rates steady at 4.25%, while forecasting weaker GDP growth and higher inflation for the US economy.
GDP data is due out on Thursday, and consumer sentiment on Friday. Will they show a slightly slowing economy as the Fed expects?
The 2nd April looms large, with Investors waiting for the imposition of US tariffs on its trading partners. Will they really be at 25%? Or could they not be introduced at all?
Main events for this week:
Mon Mar 24
09:00 EUR Flash Manufacturing/Services PMI
09:30 GBP Flash Manufacturing/Services PMI
13:45 USD Flash Manufacturing/Services PMI
17:45 USD FOMC Bostic Speaks
18:00 GBP BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
Tue Mar 25
09:00 EUR German IFO Business Climate
14:00 USD Consumer Confidence/New Home Sales
Wed Mar 26
00:30 AUD CPI
07:00 GBP CPI
12:00 UK Spring Statement
12:30 USD Durable Goods
Thu Mar 27
12:30 USD Final GDP/Unemployment Claims/Goods Trade Balance
Fri Mar 28
07:00 GBP Retail sales/Final GDP/Revised Business Investment
12:30 USD Personal Consumption Expenditure
14:00 USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment/Inflation Expectations
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